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Edge Lab

Sports data analyst & independent researcher. I build statistical models across soccer, NBA, MLB, NFL, UFC, and tennis — then publish the backtested findings. Over 1,000 matches and games analyzed. Sy

Location San Francisco, CA Joined Joined on  Personal website https://edgelab.gumroad.com

Education

Statistics & Data Science

Work

Independent Sports Analytics Researcher

World Cup 2026: Spain's 4-0 Demolition Reveals Why the 48-Team Format Has a Hidden Statistical Killer [Jun 30]

World Cup 2026: Spain's 4-0 Demolition Reveals Why the 48-Team Format Has a Hidden Statistical Killer [Jun 30]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format's Hidden Statistical Trap — and Why It Breaks Conventional Tournament Logic [Jun 30]

World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format's Hidden Statistical Trap — and Why It Breaks Conventional Tournament Logic [Jun 30]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Created a Statistical Nightmare — and Nobody's Talking About It [Jun 30]

World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Created a Statistical Nightmare — and Nobody's Talking About It [Jun 30]

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6 min read
I Analyzed 1,085 Soccer Matches. The 87th Minute Data Will Surprise You. [Jun 29]

I Analyzed 1,085 Soccer Matches. The 87th Minute Data Will Surprise You. [Jun 29]

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5 min read
The 47-Point Vig Trap: How Bookmaker Margins Hide Profitable Opportunities in Plain Sight [Jun 29]

The 47-Point Vig Trap: How Bookmaker Margins Hide Profitable Opportunities in Plain Sight [Jun 29]

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6 min read
xG Models Lie: How StatsBomb Data Reveals 47% of "High-Quality" Shots Never Should Have Counted [Jun 29]

xG Models Lie: How StatsBomb Data Reveals 47% of "High-Quality" Shots Never Should Have Counted [Jun 29]

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6 min read
The Serve Speed Paradox: Why Faster Servers Don't Always Win More [Jun 29]

The Serve Speed Paradox: Why Faster Servers Don't Always Win More [Jun 29]

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6 min read
UFC Underdog ROI: I Tracked 500 Fights to Find Systematic Mispricings [Jun 29]

UFC Underdog ROI: I Tracked 500 Fights to Find Systematic Mispricings [Jun 29]

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6 min read
Portugal's 5-0 Win Hides a Catastrophic Defensive Pattern No One's Discussing [Jun 29]

Portugal's 5-0 Win Hides a Catastrophic Defensive Pattern No One's Discussing [Jun 29]

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4 min read
World Cup 2026: The 16-Group Format Is Creating a Statistical Nightmare Nobody Saw Coming [Jun 29]

World Cup 2026: The 16-Group Format Is Creating a Statistical Nightmare Nobody Saw Coming [Jun 29]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: Spain's 5-Goal Blitz Exposes Why Late Draws Are Actually Red Flags [Jun 29]

World Cup 2026: Spain's 5-Goal Blitz Exposes Why Late Draws Are Actually Red Flags [Jun 29]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: The 16-Group Format Is Creating a Statistical Trap Nobody Expected [Jun 29]

World Cup 2026: The 16-Group Format Is Creating a Statistical Trap Nobody Expected [Jun 29]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Created a Statistical Trap Nobody's Talking About [Jun 29]

World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Created a Statistical Trap Nobody's Talking About [Jun 29]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format's Hidden Statistical Trap — And Why It's About to Upend Tournament Favorites [Jun 29]

World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format's Hidden Statistical Trap — And Why It's About to Upend Tournament Favorites [Jun 29]

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6 min read
Sharp Money vs Public Money: What 847,000 Betting Line Movements Reveal About Market Inefficiency [Jun 28]

Sharp Money vs Public Money: What 847,000 Betting Line Movements Reveal About Market Inefficiency [Jun 28]

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6 min read
I Found 5 Systematic Biases in Sports Prediction Markets Using Polymarket Data [Jun 28]

I Found 5 Systematic Biases in Sports Prediction Markets Using Polymarket Data [Jun 28]

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6 min read
I Almost Missed This Pattern Until I Wrote 15 Lines of Python: How Pandas Revealed Why Shot Location Beats Shot Volume i

I Almost Missed This Pattern Until I Wrote 15 Lines of Python: How Pandas Revealed Why Shot Location Beats Shot Volume i

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5 min read
Line Shopping Is Dead: I Tracked 10 Sportsbooks for 6 Months and Found They're All Wrong Together [Jun 28]

Line Shopping Is Dead: I Tracked 10 Sportsbooks for 6 Months and Found They're All Wrong Together [Jun 28]

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6 min read
xG Overestimates Strikers by 19%: What StatsBomb Data Actually Shows About Shot Quality [Jun 28]

xG Overestimates Strikers by 19%: What StatsBomb Data Actually Shows About Shot Quality [Jun 28]

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6 min read
The Serve Speed Paradox: Why Faster Servers Don't Always Win More (And What Actually Matters) [Jun 28]

The Serve Speed Paradox: Why Faster Servers Don't Always Win More (And What Actually Matters) [Jun 28]

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6 min read
Portugal's 5-0 Win Hides a Catastrophic Defensive Vulnerability—And the Data Says It's Repeatable [Jun 28]

Portugal's 5-0 Win Hides a Catastrophic Defensive Vulnerability—And the Data Says It's Repeatable [Jun 28]

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4 min read
World Cup 2026: Why Spain's 9-Goal Rampage Doesn't Mean They'll Win It All [Jun 28]

World Cup 2026: Why Spain's 9-Goal Rampage Doesn't Mean They'll Win It All [Jun 28]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Created a Scoring Exploit — And Three Nations Are Already Exploiting It [Jun 28]

World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Created a Scoring Exploit — And Three Nations Are Already Exploiting It [Jun 28]

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: Why Spain's 9-Goal Rampage Masks a Fatal Late-Game Weakness [Jun 28]

World Cup 2026: Why Spain's 9-Goal Rampage Masks a Fatal Late-Game Weakness [Jun 28]

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7 min read
World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Exposed a Brutal Statistical Trap—and Most Teams Don't See It Coming [Jun 28]

World Cup 2026: The 48-Team Format Just Exposed a Brutal Statistical Trap—and Most Teams Don't See It Coming [Jun 28]

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7 min read
World Cup 2026: Spain's 9-Goal Rampage Exposes the 48-Team Format's Most Dangerous Statistical Illusion [Jun 28]

World Cup 2026: Spain's 9-Goal Rampage Exposes the 48-Team Format's Most Dangerous Statistical Illusion [Jun 28]

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6 min read
UFC Underdog ROI: I Tracked 500 Fights to Find Systematic Mispricings

UFC Underdog ROI: I Tracked 500 Fights to Find Systematic Mispricings

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6 min read
Computer Vision in Sports: How Tracking Data Is Changing How We Analyze Games

Computer Vision in Sports: How Tracking Data Is Changing How We Analyze Games

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6 min read
Giant Killings in Champions League: Data Analysis of 30 Years of Upsets

Giant Killings in Champions League: Data Analysis of 30 Years of Upsets

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6 min read
Exit Velocity vs ERA: What Statcast Data Reveals About Pitcher Vulnerability

Exit Velocity vs ERA: What Statcast Data Reveals About Pitcher Vulnerability

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6 min read
The Analytics Behind NFL Underdogs: Why Spread Covers Happen More Than Bookmakers Price

The Analytics Behind NFL Underdogs: Why Spread Covers Happen More Than Bookmakers Price

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6 min read
Sharp Money vs Public Money: What Betting Line Movement Data Reveals

Sharp Money vs Public Money: What Betting Line Movement Data Reveals

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6 min read
I Found 5 Systematic Biases in Sports Prediction Markets Using Polymarket Data

I Found 5 Systematic Biases in Sports Prediction Markets Using Polymarket Data

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6 min read
StatsBomb Open Data Reveals: Late Goals Aren't Random

StatsBomb Open Data Reveals: Late Goals Aren't Random

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6 min read
Line Shopping Analytics: I Tracked Odds Across 10 Books and Found Systematic Differences

Line Shopping Analytics: I Tracked Odds Across 10 Books and Found Systematic Differences

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6 min read
World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Historic Upset Probabilities—And Which Dark Horses Should Terrify Fav

World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Historic Upset Probabilities—And Which Dark Horses Should Terrify Fav

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5 min read
Giant Killings in Champions League: Data Analysis of 30 Years of Upsets

Giant Killings in Champions League: Data Analysis of 30 Years of Upsets

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5 min read
Exit Velocity vs ERA: What Statcast Data Reveals About Pitcher Vulnerability

Exit Velocity vs ERA: What Statcast Data Reveals About Pitcher Vulnerability

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6 min read
Advanced NBA Metrics That Predict Playoff Success Better Than Seed Position

Advanced NBA Metrics That Predict Playoff Success Better Than Seed Position

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6 min read
Building a Sports Data Pipeline: Python, StatsBomb API, and pandas in Practice

Building a Sports Data Pipeline: Python, StatsBomb API, and pandas in Practice

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5 min read
StatsBomb Open Data Reveals: Late Goals Aren't Random

StatsBomb Open Data Reveals: Late Goals Aren't Random

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6 min read
The Best Free Sports Data APIs in 2025: A Developer's Practical Review

The Best Free Sports Data APIs in 2025: A Developer's Practical Review

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5 min read
xG vs Actual Goals: A Deep Dive Into StatsBomb Open Data Across 5 Competitions

xG vs Actual Goals: A Deep Dive Into StatsBomb Open Data Across 5 Competitions

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6 min read
The Serve Speed Paradox: Why Faster Servers Don't Always Win More

The Serve Speed Paradox: Why Faster Servers Don't Always Win More

Comments
6 min read
UFC Underdog ROI: I Tracked 500 Fights to Find Systematic Mispricings

UFC Underdog ROI: I Tracked 500 Fights to Find Systematic Mispricings

Comments
6 min read
World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format is Creating Statistical Anomalies in Group Stage Upset Probability

World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format is Creating Statistical Anomalies in Group Stage Upset Probability

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4 min read
World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Statistically Unprecedented Upset Opportunities

World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Statistically Unprecedented Upset Opportunities

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5 min read
World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Historic Group Stage Upset Probability

World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Historic Group Stage Upset Probability

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6 min read
Argentina's Dominance at WC2026: The xG Story Behind Their 3-1 Win vs Mexico

Argentina's Dominance at WC2026: The xG Story Behind Their 3-1 Win vs Mexico

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3 min read
World Cup 2026: Why the 48-Team Format is a Goldmine for Upset Predictions (And How to Model It)

World Cup 2026: Why the 48-Team Format is a Goldmine for Upset Predictions (And How to Model It)

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5 min read
World Cup 2026: Why the 48-Team Format Dramatically Increases Upset Probability in Group Stage

World Cup 2026: Why the 48-Team Format Dramatically Increases Upset Probability in Group Stage

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5 min read
Python Tutorial: Analyzing WC2026 Match Data with pandas – A Beginner's Guide to Sports Analytics

Python Tutorial: Analyzing WC2026 Match Data with pandas – A Beginner's Guide to Sports Analytics

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5 min read
World Cup 2026: Why the 48-Team Format Is a Statistically Perfect Storm for Group Stage Upsets

World Cup 2026: Why the 48-Team Format Is a Statistically Perfect Storm for Group Stage Upsets

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5 min read
World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format is Creating Statistically Predictable Upsets (And Why You Should Bet Against Your

World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format is Creating Statistically Predictable Upsets (And Why You Should Bet Against Your

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5 min read
World Cup 2026: The Upset Probability Explosion—How 48 Teams Changed Everything

World Cup 2026: The Upset Probability Explosion—How 48 Teams Changed Everything

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5 min read
World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Statistically Unprecedented Upset Opportunities

World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Statistically Unprecedented Upset Opportunities

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5 min read
I Found 5 Systematic Biases in Sports Prediction Markets Using Polymarket Data

I Found 5 Systematic Biases in Sports Prediction Markets Using Polymarket Data

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6 min read
Python Tutorial: Analyzing WC2026 Match Data with pandas — A Step-by-Step Guide

Python Tutorial: Analyzing WC2026 Match Data with pandas — A Step-by-Step Guide

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5 min read
Argentina's WC2026 Stunner: How They Won a Game They Had No Right to Win

Argentina's WC2026 Stunner: How They Won a Game They Had No Right to Win

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4 min read
World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Historic Upset Opportunities in Group Stages

World Cup 2026: How the 48-Team Format Is Creating Historic Upset Opportunities in Group Stages

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5 min read
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